IEA Warns Europe’s Jet Fuel Stocks Could Run Critical Within Six Weeks

Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned. According to the agency’s latest assessment, storage levels are expected to fall to a critical point by June unless the region secures alternative supplies to replace at least half of its typical Middle Eastern imports.

The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic corridor for Gulf aviation fuel exports, has been effectively blocked for over six weeks. This follows retaliatory actions by Iran in response to attacks by the United States and Israel. The standoff has driven fuel prices higher and sparked concerns over potential shortages. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that continued disruption could soon lead to flight cancellations.

As outlined in the IEA’s monthly oil market report, the Gulf region remains the single largest source of jet fuel for global markets. At the same time, other refining hubs—including South Korea, India, and China—are themselves heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude, limiting their ability to backfill the supply gap. The IEA described the current situation as a significant shock to the aviation fuel supply chain.

Historically, nearly 75% of Europe’s jet fuel imports came from the Middle East. European nations are now turning to alternative suppliers, particularly the United States and Nigeria. The IEA notes that U.S. jet fuel exports have shown strong growth in recent weeks. Nevertheless, even if all these volumes were redirected to Europe, they would cover only slightly more than half of the previous supply from the Gulf.

The IEA report also explored different supply scenarios. If Europe fails to replace more than half of its former Middle Eastern imports, physical shortages could occur at certain airports—leading to flight cancellations and a reduction in demand. Even with a replacement rate of 75%, similar risks could arise, although not until August. The report concludes that, to maintain adequate stock levels during the summer peak season, European markets will need to intensify efforts to attract additional supply from other regions.

In response, a UK government spokesperson confirmed that officials are working closely with fuel suppliers and airlines to ensure continued travel and business support.